Turmoil. But, whether it is bloody or political remains to be seen. I don't know a whole lot about the situation, but that is the first thing I thought of when I read the reports that Fidel was hospitalized.
1)Will the US interfere in some way? Probably not, since they are busy elsewhere.
2)Will the army follow Fidel's brother? Difficult to know but I think the army will support Fidel's brother. There has been no sign of any trouble with Fidel's generals that I know off.
3)Will the people follow? Really doesn't matter as long as the new president has the support of the army and so long as tourism doesn't suffer.
So I would guess, no, no turmoil, except you know, big scenes of mass hysteria when Castro dies.
But I was hoping he'd leave Cuba to me in his will and I can go there and be Empress of Cuba. (yeah, I'll need a few more little islands to have a real empire - give me time.)
Now, if the U.S. had any sense, we'd treat Cuba like we do pretty much any other (formerly and not-so) communist country, and work on engagement. Ending the trade embargo upon his death wouldn't really cause anyone to lose face, and would probably help lift a lot of Cubans out of poverty.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2006-08-01 05:35 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-08-01 05:51 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-08-01 07:36 pm (UTC)1)Will the US interfere in some way? Probably not, since they are busy elsewhere.
2)Will the army follow Fidel's brother? Difficult to know but I think the army will support Fidel's brother. There has been no sign of any trouble with Fidel's generals that I know off.
3)Will the people follow? Really doesn't matter as long as the new president has the support of the army and so long as tourism doesn't suffer.
So I would guess, no, no turmoil, except you know, big scenes of mass hysteria when Castro dies.
Agreed.
Date: 2006-08-03 01:31 am (UTC)I've heard that Raul Castro trained the army for years.
Date: 2006-08-03 02:40 pm (UTC)Now, if the U.S. had any sense, we'd treat Cuba like we do pretty much any other (formerly and not-so) communist country, and work on engagement. Ending the trade embargo upon his death wouldn't really cause anyone to lose face, and would probably help lift a lot of Cubans out of poverty.