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sombrefanOne thing about President Bush's State of the Union address is that it should be a wake up call for European leaders to get their act together and go for closer integration.
Which inspired me (or not as some might argue) to write this some what rambling half piss take/half serious essay on potential future events. (I had to get it out of my system)
Currently, in the world there is one superpower and two potential superpowers.Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia The USA, Europe and China. America dominates the world. Primarily through its economic power, but when needs be military force will come into play.
Europe is a divided continent and has yet really to flex its muscles but once it does, it will be a wake up call to the rest of the world. However, it'll be at least 10 years before we see a true European Union.
China is the great unknown. Recent studies have indicated it will have overtaken the States by 2040 or 2050 in terms of economic superiority. However, out of the 3 superpowers it is the weakest in terms of strength. The vast majority of its population are poor and it is an oppressive regime in the eyes of Western observers.
As the years tick on, things will change. There will, of course, be vassal states. At the moment, the UK allies itself to the States, India is moving closer to China and I would predict that eventually Japan will succumb to the predominance of China in the Asian sphere. In Europe, various North African countries are forging links with Europe and the union will soon stretch as far as the Russian border. Eventually, Russia, Georgia and the Ukraine will form part of a Greater Europe. Which is something Napoleon and Hitler dreamt about but never achieved.
As some Christian fundamentalist believe the end of the world happen as a result of events in the Middle East. And whilst I do not share this doom laden view, I would concur that the Middle East is the major flashpoint for global conflict.
Recently British government documents from 1973 were released and they showed that the United States had drawn up plans to seize Saudi and Kuwaiti oil fields during the oil embargo. These days, people would laugh at such overt methods of maintaining a country's oil supply and instead we have already seen a far more subtle approach. A doctrine of attacking minor third world tyrants in the name of democracy and national security has to some extent masked the more long term plan for securing the economic future of America. We are seeing only the beginnings of the neo-conservatives plans for the Middle East.
Various European countries, of course, would no doubt love to do the same thing. But they lack the military and economic power to achieve the seizure of a country to maintain their oil supplies. Instead, various leaders attempted to build links with Middle Eastern nations by arms sales, aid and bribery. If the road to total Western European integration is achieved by 2020, we should expect to see European troops in pacification and liberation of certain Middle Eastern nations. Specifically, Iran.
As stated before, the vast majority of the Chinese population are poor compared to Western standards. But given the economic growth rate of China, we should expect to see the income levels of a sizeable minority of the population rising. At the simplest level, more and more resources will be consumed. The Chinese government will look further afield for resources. The short term goal will be to maintain it's level of economic growth. Therefore, Chinese foreign policy will be that of a counter balance to American and European hegemony. It will extend aid and support to smaller nations particularly in the Middle East who feel threatened by Western interference. Ties between China and its vassal states will grow stronger until the smaller nation is in a position akin to that of a fly stuck in a web. And therefore annexation of that country's resources will be achieved.
The Europeans and the Americans will not look kindly upon this.
Which inspired me (or not as some might argue) to write this some what rambling half piss take/half serious essay on potential future events. (I had to get it out of my system)
Currently, in the world there is one superpower and two potential superpowers.
Europe is a divided continent and has yet really to flex its muscles but once it does, it will be a wake up call to the rest of the world. However, it'll be at least 10 years before we see a true European Union.
China is the great unknown. Recent studies have indicated it will have overtaken the States by 2040 or 2050 in terms of economic superiority. However, out of the 3 superpowers it is the weakest in terms of strength. The vast majority of its population are poor and it is an oppressive regime in the eyes of Western observers.
As the years tick on, things will change. There will, of course, be vassal states. At the moment, the UK allies itself to the States, India is moving closer to China and I would predict that eventually Japan will succumb to the predominance of China in the Asian sphere. In Europe, various North African countries are forging links with Europe and the union will soon stretch as far as the Russian border. Eventually, Russia, Georgia and the Ukraine will form part of a Greater Europe. Which is something Napoleon and Hitler dreamt about but never achieved.
As some Christian fundamentalist believe the end of the world happen as a result of events in the Middle East. And whilst I do not share this doom laden view, I would concur that the Middle East is the major flashpoint for global conflict.
Recently British government documents from 1973 were released and they showed that the United States had drawn up plans to seize Saudi and Kuwaiti oil fields during the oil embargo. These days, people would laugh at such overt methods of maintaining a country's oil supply and instead we have already seen a far more subtle approach. A doctrine of attacking minor third world tyrants in the name of democracy and national security has to some extent masked the more long term plan for securing the economic future of America. We are seeing only the beginnings of the neo-conservatives plans for the Middle East.
Various European countries, of course, would no doubt love to do the same thing. But they lack the military and economic power to achieve the seizure of a country to maintain their oil supplies. Instead, various leaders attempted to build links with Middle Eastern nations by arms sales, aid and bribery. If the road to total Western European integration is achieved by 2020, we should expect to see European troops in pacification and liberation of certain Middle Eastern nations. Specifically, Iran.
As stated before, the vast majority of the Chinese population are poor compared to Western standards. But given the economic growth rate of China, we should expect to see the income levels of a sizeable minority of the population rising. At the simplest level, more and more resources will be consumed. The Chinese government will look further afield for resources. The short term goal will be to maintain it's level of economic growth. Therefore, Chinese foreign policy will be that of a counter balance to American and European hegemony. It will extend aid and support to smaller nations particularly in the Middle East who feel threatened by Western interference. Ties between China and its vassal states will grow stronger until the smaller nation is in a position akin to that of a fly stuck in a web. And therefore annexation of that country's resources will be achieved.
The Europeans and the Americans will not look kindly upon this.
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no subject
Date: 2004-01-21 06:54 am (UTC)Though one thing, I don't think that Japan will fall in line with China, despite the proximity. Its more likely that Japan will follow the US, giving the US allies close to each sphere.
And nice 1984 reference. :)